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There's "no chance" China's property sector rebounds, a researcher from the Eurasia Group told Bloomberg. China's real estate sector was once 25% to 30% of the country's GDP, and "there's not really any sector that can fill in that gap." AdvertisementBack in 2021, China's real estate sector went topsy-turvy — and according to one researcher, it's never going to go back to its halcyon days. "The property market contributes about 10% of China's GDP," Anna Ashton from the Eurasia Group told Bloomberg. "There's not really any sector that can fill in that gap, and there's no chance of the property market rebounding to what it was before."
Persons: , turvy, it's, Anna Ashton, There's, there's Organizations: Eurasia Group, Bloomberg, Service, Business Locations: what's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPakistan's elections will 'almost certainly not' be free and fair, analyst saysPramit Pal Chaudhuri, practice head for South Asia at Eurasia Group, says this election is "easily one of the most blatant in terms of the degree of interference by the military."
Persons: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: South Asia
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewChina's extended stock market rout was so bad that leader Xi Jinping was set to personally pay attention to it — and it looks like his solution was to fire the country's top markets regulatory late on Wednesday. After all, there were suggestions earlier that authorities are considering a stabilization fund to rescue the flailing stock market. Stock markets in China and Hong Kong have accelerated losses into 2024. The analysts at the Eurasia Group aren't the only ones who say China needs to double down on economic reforms to shore up its economy.
Persons: , Xi Jinping, Wu Qing, Xi, Eswar Prasad, China's Organizations: Service, China Securities Regulatory, Bloomberg, Business, Eurasia Group, Eurasia Group aren't, Cornell University, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing
"That's when you get the good s---," said a Davos attendee who is regularly selected to join the exclusive backroom of the Annual Davos Wine Forum Tasting. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards JPMorgan took over the Kirchner Museum for its annual drinks event. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards The attire of the Davos set is decidedly not chic. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards The color of your conference badge determined access to World Economic Forum events. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards Skiing and snowboarding post panels and broadcasting was another favorite pastime of some Davos goers.
Persons: bankrolled, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, George Soros, Bill Browder, Anthony Scaramucci, Anthony, Scaramucci, queued, Latour, Donald Trump, , Mark Milley, Matt Damon, Richard Branson, Andrea Bocelli, Chris Coons, Paul Ryan, bartenders, Champagne Perrier, Chateau Latour, L'Eglise, Burgundy Olivier Bernstein Bonnes, Domaine Comte Georges de Vogue, Tenuta, Casanova di Neri, Stephen King, Browder, Doug Emhoff, Gary Cohn, Ian Bremmer, Sir Martin Sorrell, Sting, Bill Gates, Sam Altman, Marc Benioff, Ray Dalio, Emhoff, Ernst Ludwig Kirchner, Brian Moynihan, IBM's Gary Cohn, Jack Hidary, Sir Richard Moore, Barry Colson, Davos goer, Moritz, Eve, CNBCers, Emmanuel Macron, John Kerry, Joe Short, roundtables, Wyclef Jean, Diane von Fürstenberg, George Osborne, David Rhodes, Osborne, Politico's Suzanne Lynch, Princess Beatrice, David Blaine, Milley —, Tij, CNBC Tij Organizations: Economic, CNBC, Congress Center, Russian, Russian Direct Investment Fund, Moonshot Investor Network, Putin, Hermitage Capital, SkyBridge, White House Communications, Chiefs, Bordeaux Smith Haut, Platz, Politico, IBM, AB InBev, White, Trump, Eurasia Group, Capital, Microsoft, Wall Street, Billionaire Microsoft, Light, Infosys, Bloomberg House, JPMorgan, Kirchner Museum, Financial, Hotel, CNBC CNBC, Bank of America, New, Davos, U.S . Climate, Accenture, Golf Club Davos, Palantir, Chancellor, Sky News's, Sting, Workers, Swiss Army, Army, Gliding Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Soviet, Ukraine, Moscow, Hungarian, Hermitage, Providence, Europe, Davos's, Bordeaux, Bordeaux Smith Haut Lafitte, Bello, Santa Cruz, Napa Valley Tuscany, Schatzalp, Scalettastrasse, Emirates, Halifax, Canada, Salt Lake City, U.S, Palantir, Swiss
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe Middle East appeared to have moved closer to a regional war on Sunday after three US troops were killed and dozens more were injured in an attack on a US base in Jordan. The drone attack was launched by the Islamic Resistance, an Iran-backed militia based in Iraq. It seemed to many analysts to signify an escalation in Iran's aggression toward the US and its allies in the region. However, several experts are warning against such a conclusion, claiming that Iran may not have been seeking to trigger an escalation in the conflict.
Persons: , Joe Biden, Tobias Borck, Greg Brew, wasn't, Borck, Jordan, Biden, Robert Dover, Dover Organizations: Service, Business, Islamic, Royal United Services Institute, Eurasia Group, New York Times, CBS, University of Hull Locations: Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Gaza, Israel's, Yemen, Red, Tehran
Guyana, a tiny South American nation home to more than 800,000 people, made big headlines in December. "What has happened is that it's been exacerbated by the discovery of oil (in Guyana)," said Dr. Terrence Blackman, founder and CEO at Guyana Business Journal. The 2015 oil discovery made Guyana the world's fastest-growing economy, recording the world's highest real GDP growth rate in 2022 and 2023. Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, but that hasn't stopped its economy from collapsing since Maduro took power in 2013. Watch the video above to dive deep into Guyana's oil economy, its ongoing escalation with Venezuela, what the country's oil means for the U.S. and more.
Persons: Nicolás Maduro, it's, Terrence Blackman, hasn't, Maduro, Venezuela doesn't, Valerie Marcel, Gregory Brew Organizations: Guyana Business, New Producers Group, Eurasia Group, U.S Locations: Guyana, American, Venezuela, Essequibo, United States, South America
Fayaz Aziz | ReutersIran's recent missile and drone strikes on targets in three countries — Syria, Iraq and Pakistan — may not have been directly related to Israel's war in the Gaza Strip but they still revealed an intent to send a clear message, analysts told CNBC. Iraqi and Pakistani ministers vocally criticized the attacks, calling them a "violation" and vowing consequences. watch nowPakistan responded a day later, striking targets inside Iran that Iranian authorities say killed several people. They were also the first time Iran had deployed its military directly at any time since the Israel-Hamas war began. "There is an element of signaling to the United States and Israel by carrying out these strikes because they do showcase Iran's continued ballistic missile capabilities," Bohl told CNBC.
Persons: Fayaz Aziz, Ben Taleblu, we've, Ian Bremmer, Yemen's, Ryan Bohl, Bohl, Safin Hamid Organizations: Reuters, CNBC, ISIS, Foundation for Defense, Democracies, Washington D.C, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Eurasia Group, Economic, Middle East, RANE Network, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, AFP, Getty Locations: Iran, Tehran, Israel, Peshawar, Pakistan, Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Washington, Israeli, Iraq's Kurdistan, State, Iraqi, Davos, Lebanon, Hamas, Yemen, U.S, Red, United States, Kurdistan, Arbil
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's pretty clear who the most popular person in the Republican Party is, analyst saysJon Lieber of Eurasia Group says it's Donald Trump.
Persons: Jon Lieber, it's Donald Trump Organizations: Republican Party, Eurasia Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFake robocall hurts Joe Biden more than opposition, says Eurasia Group's Ian BremmerHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: Joe Biden, Ian Bremmer, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC Locations: Eurasia
A pop-up showcasing Saudi Arabia's Neom development features among the most prominent on the Davos promenade in 2024. But Saudi Arabia is keen to capture some of the limelight, and talent, from its neighbor on the Arabian Peninsula — an ambition laid bare on the Davos Promenade this year. "He's driving entrepreneurship, he's diversifying the economy ... And there are a lot of people that are really interested in working in Saudi Arabia," said Bremmer. "In the Emirates and in Saudi Arabia, you have millions of people that need upskilling, particularly Saudi Arabia which has a much larger population," Hidary said. Hidary, who was recently in Saudi Arabia, says that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are looking at countries like Singapore and Israel that have supported start-ups and are driven by technology.
Persons: Mohammed al, Jadaan, Prince Mohammed bin Salman's, Ian Bremmer, he's, Bremmer, Jamal Khashoggi, King Abdullah, KAUST, Harri Jarvelainen, Vera Futorjanski, Futorjanski, Israel Jack Hidary, Hidary, — CNBC's Karen Gilchrist Organizations: Saudi, CNBC, United Arab, prince's, , Economic, Al, U.S, Eurasia Group, MBS, World Bank, Research Technology Centers, King, King Abdullah University of Science, Technology, UCLA, Riyadh's, Center, AI Research, AI, Artificial Intelligence Authority, Veritas Ventures, Emirates Locations: Davos, CNBC DAVOS, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Neom, Saudi, Riyadh, China, Istanbul, UAE, Singapore, Israel, Emirates
A person walks on the day of the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland, January 19, 2024. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse Denis Balibouse | ReutersThe 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland will wrap Friday. Here are some of takeaways from Davos after our week talking to business leaders and government officials at the conference. Experts see no U.S. recession in 2024Overwhelmingly, economic experts and executives privately said they don't expect a U.S. recession in 2024. China fighting for cashChina's Premier Li Qiang speaks during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 16, 2024.
Persons: Denis Balibouse Denis Balibouse, , , Donald Trump, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Denis Balibouse, Wyclef Jean, Sam Altman, Altman, Li Qiang, Premier Li Qiang, it's, Li, Ian Bremmer, Bremmer, they're Organizations: Economic, REUTERS, U.S, The New York Times, Wipro, Artificial Intelligence, Reuters, Technology, Recruit Holdings, Premier, Eurasia Group Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Zurich, Swiss, takeaways, U.S, Israel, Gaza, China, India, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Nearly impossible' for China-Taiwan dialogue to resume under Taiwan president-elect Lai: EurasiaAva Shen, China associate at the Eurasia Group discusses how president-elect Lai Ching-te's victory in the Taiwan election will affect US-China relations and why she thinks it is unlikely for Taiwan and China to resume official communications.
Persons: Eurasia Ava Shen, Lai Ching Organizations: Taiwan, Eurasia Group Locations: China, Taiwan, Eurasia
Why China hates the new president of Taiwan
  + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
"Lai Ching-te clings stubbornly to the separatist position for 'Taiwan independence.' A matter of Taiwan's independenceIn 2017, while he was premier, Lai referred to himself as a "pragmatic worker for 'Taiwan independence.'" AdvertisementLai has pledged to maintain status quo and stability in Taiwan, but China isn't backing down on its stance either. "I think China hates him, really hates him," Wu Xinbo, an international relations professor at Shanghai's Fudan University, told Reuters, referring to Lai. "It is because if he is elected as the leader of Taiwan, he may come to advance his goal of Taiwan independence, which will provoke a crisis across the Taiwan Strait," added Wu.
Persons: William Lai Ching, Taiwan's, Lai, , Wiliam Lai Ching, Lai Ching, Xi Jinping, Wu Xinbo, Wu, Wang Yi, Jeremy Mark, William Lai, Chong Ja Ian, Chong, Tsai Ing Organizations: Democratic Progressive Party, Service, China's Taiwan Affairs Office, Chinese Communist Party, Shanghai's Fudan University, Reuters, Analysts, Lai's, Atlantic Council, Eurasia Group, KMT, National University of Singapore, Carnegie China, Channel News Asia Locations: China, Beijing, Taiwan, South America, Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's
Wholesale inflation fell by 0.1% in December, capping a year in which the rate of price increases dropped sharply, according to a report from the Labor Department released on Friday. The producer price index for all of 2023 came in at 1% compared to 6.4% in 2022. No indication of inflation at the wholesale level,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, posted on social media. A lot will depend on how the economy performs this year after putting in a strong performance in 2023. Wages are increasing and now running higher than the level of inflation, giving support to consumer spending.
Persons: ” Kathy Jones, , Jeffrey Roach, ” “, Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Ian Bremmer, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, ” Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal, LPL Financial, BCA Research, Fed, U.S, Global Affairs, Goldman, Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, JPMorgan Locations: Red, Iranian, Asia, U.S, Ukraine
China's real-estate sector has been mired in a debt crisis for over two years with no signs of a strong recovery. Electric vehiclesThanks to government subsidies, China is already the world's largest market and producer of electric vehicles. Related storiesThe Chinese EV market is expected to continue growing 25% this year, although the growth is slower than the 36% the industry posted in 2023 as Beijing winds down its subsidies. In the last quarter of 2023, Chinese EV maker BYD overtook Tesla to become the world's largest seller of electric vehicles . Other Chinese EV brands with international expansion plans include Nio, Geely, and Zeekr.
Persons: Xi, Tesla, Ilaria, Bernstein, Wood Mackenzie Organizations: Service, Business, Eurasia Group, Center for Strategic, International Studies, South, Financial Times Locations: China, Beijing, Europe, Washington ,
Other Southeast Asian countries such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam also claim parts of the South China Sea. "The key to developing a healthy, stable, and sustainable military-to-military relationship is ... a correct understanding of China," China's Defense Ministry said in a readout of the Brown-Liu virtual call. China has consistently maintained its claim over self-governed Taiwan and the majority of the South China Sea. The U.S. has documented more than 180 coercive and risky air intercepts against its aircraft in the region between 2021 and 2023, according to its latest China Military Power Report. This includes their bilateral Defense Policy Coordination Talks, Military Maritime Consultative Agreement talks, and opening lines of communication between the leaders of the respective military commands in the South China Sea and the broader Pacific.
Persons: Cope, Charles Brown, Liu Zhenli, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, General Brown, General Liu, Nancy Pelosi, Brown, Liu, — CNBC's Evelyn Cheng Organizations: Air Force, Clark Air Base, U.S, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Economic Cooperation, Biden, Beijing, U.S ., Defense Ministry, U.S . Defense Department, People's Liberation Army, Maritime, Eurasia Group Locations: Philippines, Mabalacat, Pampanga, Asia, San Francisco, Eurasia, China, Taiwan, Beijing, Singapore, Manila, South China, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, United States, The Hague, U.S, South
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Israel-Hamas war is a 'no-win' situation for Biden domestically, analyst saysIan Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, says U.S. President Joe Biden is, on the global stage, probably as isolated on the issue as the Russians were when they invaded Ukraine, adding that the Democrats are increasingly aligned with the Palestinian position.
Persons: Biden, Ian Bremmer, Joe Biden Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: Israel, Ukraine
Ukraine signaled Monday that it is shifting its military tactics toward a more defensive footing after an analysis of Russia's resource capabilities and as winter approaches. Resources will be directed to increasing domestic arms production, he said, and speeding up negotiations with allies to increase equipment supplies for the "new stage" of Ukraine's offensive operations, he said. Zelenskyy also signaled last week that the fortification of all front lines needed to be accelerated. The shift has prompted some analysts to question whether the change reflects that Ukraine's counteroffensive, launched back in June but failing to make as much progress as hoped, is over. Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer commented Monday that "Ukrainians have shifted to building defensive fortifications, putting an end to the failed counteroffensive."
Persons: Mykhailo Podolyak, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, Ian Bremmer Organizations: Eurasia Group, Institute for Locations: Ukraine, Russian
The proposal to classify AI systems by four levels of risk — from minimal to unacceptable — was essentially intended as product safety legislation. That changed with the boom in generative AI, which sparked wonder by composing music, creating images and writing essays resembling human work. Foundation models give generative AI systems such as ChatGPT the ability to create something new, unlike traditional AI, which processes data and completes tasks using predetermined rules. Resistance to government rules for these AI systems came from an unlikely place: France, Germany and Italy. “The race should be for the best AI regulations, not the first AI regulations."
Persons: , Bard chatbot, “ Rather, won’t, , Nick Reiners, “ there’s, Reiners, Sam Altman, Thierry Breton, ” Reiners, Kent Walker, Iverna McGowan, McGowan, Altman, OpenAI, Alpha, it's, ” Dragos, , “ We’re Organizations: European Union, Eurasia Group, European Commission, Microsoft, Mistral, Elon, Center for Democracy and Technology, EU Locations: European, U.S, China, Brussels, France, Germany, Italy, Europe, German, Romanian
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's every reason for China to want to have a stable U.S. relationship: Eurasia's Anna AshtonAnna Ashton, Eurasia Group director of China corporate affairs, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations, doing business in China, challenges for U.S. companies, and more.
Persons: Eurasia's Anna Ashton Anna Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: China, Eurasia's Anna Ashton Anna Ashton, U.S
Germany didn't get to this point overnight, however — in ways, the roots of the current crisis even predate the pandemic. The government took on emergency debt to try to stem the impact the pandemic had on its budget through a temporary debt brake suspension. And so, the current coalition government decided to re-allocate it to finance policies aimed at climate change and a greener, more sustainable economy. Some observers (and several Green party members), have suggested that the climate crisis is as much of an emergency as the pandemic. But the court's ruling stands, and Germany's budget now has a 60-billion-euro ($65 billion) hole.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, Sean Gallup, Germany didn't, fumbling, Jan Techau, Mujtaba Rahman, Jens Larsen Organizations: Finance, Getty, Greens, Free Democratic Party, Eurasia Group Locations: Berlin, Germany
Their options include drawing up a supplementary budget for 2023 and suspending Germany's self-imposed debt brake before reinstating it for next year. "Our goal is to discuss the budget quickly but with due care," said a joint statement of ruling party lawmakers. The delay has heightened uncertainty about spending in all areas of the German economy and meant the 2024 budget might not be concluded before the end of the year. "I firmly assume that the commitments for Intel and TSMC will remain," a government source said, adding: "This is very important to the chancellor, as well as to the economy minister." This will happen in the course of next early 2024 and we will see how far hydrogen is available," CEO Miguel Lopez said.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz's, Scholz's, Siegfried Russwurm, TSMC, Scholz, Miguel Lopez, Holger Hansen, Christian Kraemer, Victoria Waldersee, Andreas Rinke, Madeline Chambers, Matthias Williams, Miranda Murray, Alex Richardson, Christina Fincher Organizations: Finance, Climate, Government, Ukraine Industry, Intel, TSMC, Wednesday, Social Democrat, Greens, Free Democrats, Fund, Eurasia Group, U.S, BMW, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: TSMC BERLIN, Germany's, Ukraine, EU, Saxony, Anhalt, Berlin, Germany
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at Filoli estate on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Woodside, California, on Nov. 15, 2023. Kevin Lamarque | ReutersBEIJING — U.S. President Joe Biden's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week has set a bottom line in the relationship which reduces uncertainty for businesses, analysts said. In conversations with Xi, Biden did not budge on export controls, enacted out of national security concerns. Wedding versus marriageAfter meeting Biden, Xi spoke at a dinner with top U.S. business executives in which he said the fundamental question was whether the two countries are "adversaries or partners." No 'splashy deliverables'Long-standing issues for U.S. business operations in China remain, and deals aren't made overnight.
Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Kevin Lamarque, Joe Biden's, Biden, Xi, Wang Dong, Jake Colvin, Gabriel Wildau, interlocutors, Ian Bremmer, Gary Dvorchak, it's, Jin Canrong, Jin, aren't Organizations: Economic Cooperation, Reuters, Reuters BEIJING —, Institute for Global Cooperation, Peking University, D.C, Foreign Trade Council, Summit, U.S, Biden, Eurasia Group, Mastercard, Monday, People's Bank of, Blueshirt Group, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China, Center for American Studies, Max, Boeing Locations: Filoli, Asia, Woodside , California, Reuters BEIJING, Reuters BEIJING — U.S, San Francisco, U.S, China, United States, Washington, Beijing, People's Bank of China, Taiwan
The decision has increased tensions within Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition, in particular between junior partners the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP). But Scholz is unlikely to call for new elections as they would not benefit any of the coalition partners. "Scholz definitely wants to keep the government together and believes this will work as none of the three coalition partners stand to benefit from a break," a source close to the chancellor said. "In reality, the chancellor should dismiss his coalition partners now." "And the strength of the AfD is also the reason why no actors - not even the conservatives - currently have any interest in new elections."
Persons: Sarah Marsh, Holger Hansen, Andreas Rinke BERLIN, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Philipp Tuermer, Scholz, Stefan Marschall, Ursula Muench, Frank Decker, Friedrich Merz, Markus Soeder, Decker, Andreas Rinke, Alexander Ratz, Catherine Evans Organizations: Greens, Free Democrats, Scholz's Social Democrats, Tagesspiegel, Bertelsmann Foundation, SPD, University of Duesseldorf, University of Tutzing, Bonn University, Eurasia Group Locations: Ukraine, Germany, Bavarian
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPresident Biden and Xi Jinping's APEC meeting didn't lead to any strategic changes, says Rick WatersRick Water, Managing Director at the Eurasia Group, discusses the key takeaways from President Biden's meeting with China's Xi Jinping.
Persons: Biden, Rick Waters Rick Water, Biden's, China's Xi Organizations: Xi, APEC, Eurasia Group
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